When David
Cameron made his way to dinner in Brussels on Thursday, he promised to go in “battling
for Britain through the night”. But while his fourth basket,
on restricting migrant benefits, seems to have been killed off, (in its current
form at least), the renegotiation project as a whole seems to be alive and
well. In any case, alternative solutions for the fourth basket are on the
table, and include what Jean-Claude Juncker called an “emergency
brake” to control migrant benefits.
The Prime
Minister came out speaking of the “good progress” that had been made, albeit
with much “hard work” still to do. And crucially, it wasn’t just the British
Prime Minister who was in a positive mood. Council President Donald Tusk told
the press that he was now “much more optimistic” than before that a deal could
be struck, citing “a good atmosphere and goodwill” around the table.
Any progress for the Prime Minister?
The
atmosphere certainly seems to have been a lively one. François Hollande said
that the discussions had been “in diplomatic language, frank”. The Financial
Times reveals that talks were at times heated and
emotional, with Lithuanian President (and karate black belt…) Dalia Grybauskaitė at one point
crying “blackmail!” The paper also reports that, worryingly for Mr Cameron, “more
leaders than expected raised concerns about giving national parliaments a
bigger say over EU legislation”. This is echoed in the BBC’s
summary, where Jean-Claude Juncker is quoted saying: “I’d like to warn you of
the illusory impression that there are three easy questions and [only] one
tricky one”.
It’s not all
doom and gloom for the FT, however. Importantly, Thursday night’s session
succeeded in that it “broke a worrying political deadlock”. It is clear now
that EU leaders are in the mood to work together to avoid Brexit.
The
willingness to work together includes David Cameron himself, as he agreed that
he was against discrimination, thereby all but conceding his fourth basket in
its current form. Jochen Buchsteiner of Germany’s Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung correctly predicted that the Prime Minister would be
going to the summit exhibiting a new “readiness for compromise”, despite his
bellicose rhetoric.
Some gloomy voices on both Right and Left
For Brexit
campaigners and pro-Brexit newspapers in Britain, the dinner was regarded as a
defeat for David Cameron at the hands of an ever-stubborn EU. The Daily
Mail quotes UKIP leader Nigel Farage, saying that the
Prime Minister “came, saw and got hammered”. Mr Cameron will have to back down
on migrant benefits, and the newspaper sees this as a deal-breaker.
In another
article in the same
newspaper, columnist Richard Littlejohn makes it clear that no
deal with the EU would be worth it anyway, and that the summit was “pointless”.
The article compares the seemingly never-ending renegotiation saga with Star
Wars – “May the farce be with you…” -
as does Daily Telegraph cartoonist
Christian Adams.
At the
opposite end of the political spectrum, The
Guardian is similarly downbeat, reporting that Mr Cameron
“faces Brussels deadlock over migrants’ benefits”. The newspaper claims that
other EU leaders said the Prime Minister backtracked on the issue. The Guardian
considers the summit proof that the Prime Minister’s eight-month tour of
European capitals ultimately failed in its aim of building support for his
reform package.
With another
article suggesting that for “many EU leaders [the]
immigration crisis loomed larger than the Brexit question”, it seems as if EU
leaders are either unwilling or uninterested in offering Britain a decent deal.
Merkel throws a lifeline - Socialists not playing ball
The
Times reports that Angela Merkel gave Mr Cameron “a
lifeline over EU reforms”.
While treaty
change will not happen now, the German Chancellor laid out a compromise,
according to the Financial
Times: of a “postdated promise of treaty change, similar to
that afforded to Denmark in 1992”. The FT says that it was Ms Merkel who set
the tone and direction of the early debate.
However,
François Hollande was “leading
the resistance” as Mr Cameron’s fourth basket was “roundly opposed”.
The French President did not help matters after dinner by seeming to reveal to
the press that the Prime Minister is indeed looking to hold the referendum in
summer 2016. (David Cameron has been keen to avoid naming a date).
UK Labour
Party leader Jeremy Corbyn also “twisted the knife, abandoning his party’s
position to side with Hollande” according to The
Times. European Parliament President Martin Schulz did not
seem to be in the mood to do Mr Cameron any favours either, saying
that “David Cameron has to come around to the EU position rather than the other
way around. It’s not like it’s us who invented this referendum”.
The European press strikes a more sympathetic tone
As ever, the
press on the Continent sees the potential for a deal far more readily than its
British counterpart. In France, Le
Monde says that Europe is ready to help David Cameron to
avoid Brexit. It also considers the Prime Minister to have put in a sterling
performance in Brussels. Whereas the FT suggested that his forty-five-minute
exposition speech which “threatened to interrupt” the main course was too long
– “not quite Castro length”, Le Monde says it was perfectly judged: “parfait sur la forme et le style,
brilliant”.
The paper
thinks that Europe’s leaders take the threat of Brexit seriously given the
last six polls on Brexit. These have found that only 51% of UK
voters would vote to remain in the EU. European leaders do not want to see
Brexit happen and will do what they can to prevent it. President Hollande
admits that while he is opposed to a Europe à
la carte, he is willing to see a Europe of “concentric circles”.
Stefan
Kornelius writes in Germany’s Süddeutsche
Zeitung that Mr Cameron’s EU reform proposals are “no longer unfulfillable”.
Brexit would be worse than any other crisis that the EU has faced up to this
point, and as such David Cameron can be hopeful of getting a good deal. There
is also praise for the Cameron government for understanding “the most important
lesson of all” – that the EU only works when all of its members are profiting
from it.
Die
Welt agrees that the EU will have no choice but to offer
Britain “Reformgeschenke”. Although
there is no way that the fourth basket will be accepted, EU leaders will be
aware that they need to give Mr Cameron a reform package that he can sell to
sceptical voters in the UK.
Conclusions
When he set
off for Brussels, David Cameron said that “we’re not pushing for a deal, we’re
pushing for momentum”. Judging by what Donald Tusk and the newspapers in Europe
have had to say, he seems to have succeeded in this. Back home, however, much
of the press is far from convinced - and probably never will be.
This EU
summit has heralded the end of the road for the Prime Minister’s fourth basket,
in its current formulation. But didn’t we know that much already? Much of the
British press, particularly on the Right, sees the death of the fourth basket
as a defeat for the entire renegotiation project. But did Mr Cameron (and his famously
politically astute sidekick George Osborne) ever
seriously believe it would be accepted?
The Prime
Minister is unlikely to be as downbeat as the newspapers back home. If
anything, he will be pleased to see them kicking up such a fuss. The British
public will now be expecting precious little from the all-important February
summit. But with EU leaders desperate to avert a Brexit perhaps he will at
least come away with some things to sell. The four-year benefit ban will not be
part of the package, but perhaps he could secure an “emergency brake”. It has a
rather dramatic ring to it after all…
Sources: Sky News | Guardian | Financial Times | BBC | Daily
Mail | Daily Telegraph | The Times | Le Monde | Süddeutsche Zeitung | Die Welt
| Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Edward Aldred has recently graduated from the University of Oxford where
he studied German. He is currently working as an intern with Open Europe
Berlin.